WILL GOODS SOON BE TRANSPORTED WITHOUT HUMAN INTERVENTION?
Mobility as a whole is currently undergoing its most profound transformation since the automobile first became marketable and compatible with the masses:
- On the one hand, attempts are being made to rapidly expand electromobility in order to prevent exhaust emissions and become independent of dwindling and increasingly expensive fossil fuels.
- On the other hand, vehicle digitization has developed significantly since the 1990s. Autonomous vehicles are now being tested in many places and are already in use in some regions.
Automated solutions can already be used extensively in the non-public sector in particular. Large logistics centers such as those operated by Amazon and similar global players show how internal operations can be handled with only an extremely small number of people, but with many robots working largely independently, in an absolutely practical way and with various advantages.
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING: WHAT EXACTLY IS IT?
In a modern truck, the driver is prevented from changing lanes by a stiff, vibrating steering wheel when another vehicle is approaching. The emergency brake assistant, which is mandatory by law, even acts completely without intervention – or override options.
However, the term autonomous driving allows for several possible definitions . Experts have established so-called autonomy levels or grades, which are associated with defined vehicle capabilities:
Level 1 – assisted driving: The driver is supported by individual assistance systems (such as automatic distance control), but requires full vehicle control over all parameters at all times and is liable.
Level 2 – semi-automated assisted driving: If desired, the vehicle can briefly carry out certain basic processes itself in certain situations – such as parking, maintaining lane and speed and braking. Several assistance systems are used for this. However, the driver requires full control of the vehicle at all times, cannot perform any other activities and is liable.
Level 3 – automated driving: If desired, the vehicle can carry out certain basic processes itself in certain situations over a longer period of time – such as overtaking, maintaining lane and speed and braking. This is supported by several assistance systems. The driver can turn away in situations specified by the manufacturer, but must remain ready to intervene with a certain warning time and is liable.
Level 4 – highly automated autonomous driving: The vehicle can carry out all activities itself in certain situations and drive safely for longer periods without any human intervention. The driver must be present to intervene in situations that exceed the system’s capabilities. In autonomous mode, the driver is no longer liable.
Teleoperated driving: The technical performance corresponds to level 4, but with sufficient connectivity, the driver can be present from a distance and take control via remote controls.
Level 5 – fully automated autonomous driving: The vehicle can carry out all processes itself in all situations. Driver and human controls are optional.
The term “autonomous driving” is usually only used from level 4 onwards, while the levels below this belong to assisted and automated driving.
The following technologies are necessary for autonomous driving:
- Different sensors to detect and monitor all relevant parameters
- Various actuators that replace human manual actions
- Car2X technologies that enable vehicles to communicate with each other and with their environment
- powerful digital data processing in the form of artificial intelligence for Car2X communication, correct merging and interpretation of sensor inputs and the output of control commands
Above all, communication is important so that vehicles can operate safely in traffic without human intervention – sensors alone cannot achieve this. This is why the 5G network standard and its comprehensive, rapid expansion are considered so important.
AUTONOMOUS TRANSPORT VEHICLES: A PIPE DREAM
As cross-border road transport became increasingly important in the post-war years, truck models such as the Büssing 8000 or Mercedes LPS 333 were extremely demanding vehicles to drive. As a result, two or even three drivers often took turns at the wheel on long-distance journeys.
In the 1960s and 1970s, even large tractor units became easier to handle thanks to technical developments. Only one driver was needed per truck and labor costs fell.
Today, the desire to reduce personnel costs is also considered a driving force behind the autonomization of vehicles. Driver shortages, the often low profit margins as well as wage and employer costs for social insurance – all of this could be optimized by autonomous transport vehicles
However, costs are not the only reason. Despite all the working and driving time laws and various technical aids, overworked, overtired drivers continue to be the cause of avoidable serious accidents. According to advocates, this could also be completely prevented if a computer were at the wheel.
In fact, this would even apply to the level of teleoperated driving – whereby drivers could be replaced by colleagues at any time. Of course, teleoperation would also significantly improve the quality of life of long-distance truckers. They could work at a fixed location every day and still manage all driving tasks.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN
Various manufacturers have already brought electric truck models onto the market. However, apart from prototypes, there is currently no van that can operate entirely without a driver. In addition, the topic of autonomously functioning logistics is also viewed critically.
The advancement of technologies may be partly responsible for the growing shortage of skilled workers. In view of the fact that there may soon be hardly any drivers needed, fewer and fewer people may decide to train as professional drivers.
However, these would not be the only negative aspects of autonomous road haulage:
- Acquisition costs: Fully autonomous vans will be significantly more expensive than current conventional vehicles. Although they will undoubtedly reduce ongoing operating costs, companies first need to be able to “afford” the necessary investment.
- Infrastructure costs: Autonomous vehicles require a nationwide, redundant 5G supply as well as refueling and charging facilities suitable for autonomy. The associated infrastructure must be built, which means additional costs.
- Route planning: In theory, autonomous vehicle technology will make route planning much easier. In practice, however, it will most likely be a long time before all the conditions are in place on all roads in Europe to allow fully autonomous operation. In particular, the mobile communications infrastructure must actually be reliable and redundant on every road that can be used for transportation.
There is no doubt that autonomous trucks and vans have significant advantages. However, these must always be weighed up against the equally real disadvantages and challenges in order to take a realistic view.
THE CHALLENGE OF ETHICAL ISSUES
In the field of autonomous driving, the human driver and the person responsible for a vehicle are becoming less and less important. This is where certain ethical aspects become important. When a computer steers or a human driver only steers temporarily and from a distance, completely new questions arise:
- If the worst comes to the worst, does an autonomous truck have to protect a driver who may be traveling with it, a costly load or other people – and what balancing patterns need to be applied here? (for example in so-called dilemma situations such as “Group of schoolchildren or pensioner couple?”
- Who is liable in the event of accidents caused by technical failure: the vehicle owner, the vehicle manufacturer, a manufacturer of accident-relevant technology (such as contaminated sensors) or even the state? Experts see black box technology and movement profiles as the only solution, which in turn raises data protection concerns.
- Should autonomous driving be made mandatory due to its major benefits for road safety or must freedom of choice be maintained?
- Is it justifiable to make an entire industry, which is also systemically relevant and affects society as a whole, so heavily dependent on technical systems?
- How can the computer recognize every breakdown in a way that allows it to come to a safe stop without endangering third parties? This is very difficult to detect, especially in the case of mechanical problems.
In fact, such issues are currently proving to be no less challenging than the purely technical development of autonomous transport vehicles.
An expert commission set up by the Federal Ministry of Transport published a paper on this back in 2017. However, Germany’s politicians have not yet made many decisions in this regard. In 2021, fully autonomous Level 4 operation was permitted, but only in defined areas and with prior approval – little more than a legal framework to allow realistic test operations. In addition, a uniform political line must be established for cross-border traffic, which is likely to be difficult even in the EU.
WHEN DO PROFESSIONAL DRIVERS BECOME OPTIONAL?
This explained how autonomous goods transportation on the road works from a technical and regulatory perspective. But will goods actually be transported without human intervention in the future? There are various answers and explanations.
Freight transport is currently the area in which autonomous driving is likely to start the earliest. This is due to the better cost-benefit calculation here than for passenger transportation or even private transport. Nevertheless, it will still take a few years or even decades before the technical development and expansion of the infrastructure are ready. Autonomous driving at level 4 will begin around the 2030s. The 2040s are likely to be the time before trucks and vans for level 5 can be built as standard and, above all, used everywhere.
Change will also happen slowly and step by step. Some areas are certainly more suitable for the transition to autonomous transportation – for example, factory traffic in port facilities with predictable routes. Loading and unloading technology can also be automated for many goods.
Next, transportation over the last mile could become autonomous. On medium and long distances, however, teleoperated driving is likely to prevail for some time to come. This would also be a good solution to the driver shortage: one driver could act as a “drone operator”, controlling several trucks from the control center. Skilful (also AI-controlled) timing could be used to stagger the situations in which the trucks need to be actively steered – such as driving along country roads to the final destination, where the computer would then take over parking again.
Other, particularly demanding logistics tasks, on the other hand, will require human expertise for much longer. These include heavy and special transports, for example, where the respective load has very individual requirements, is particularly sensitive or the routes to be traveled cannot be driven on normally.
By the time the majority of European goods transportation is fully autonomous, 205X will probably be on the calendar. However, it remains to be seen whether this will also include transports that are not as easy to cycle as transporting palletized goods or containers from A to B – well-trained professional drivers will still be needed for some time to come.
Image sources:
Image 1: stock.adobe.com © Gorodenkoff
Image 2: stock.adobe.com © hodim
Image 3: stock.adobe.com © AUUSanAKUL
Image 4: stock.adobe.com © LariBat
Image 5: stock.adobe.com © Kara
